How to Price Roasted Coffee (Shrinkage Is the Silent Cost)

Coffee roasting has a built-in pricing trap: the product loses weight in production. Green beans shed 15–20% of their mass in the roaster — moisture out, weight gone, cost unchanged. Roasters who price on green weight are quietly underpricing every bag by the shrinkage.

The cost of a 12 oz bag

• Green beans (15 oz green → 12 oz roasted) — about $3.30
• Bag + one-way valve — about $0.65
• Label — about $0.30

$4.25 all-in — $17 retail is a 75% margin before roast labor. The green line is the point: costing at roasted yield means the 12 oz bag carries the full 15 oz of green it consumed. Measure your own loss per roast profile — dark roasts lose more — and put the real number in the recipe.

Freshness sets the production rhythm

Roasted coffee peaks in weeks, which makes overproduction a quality problem, not just a cash one. Roast to the sales curve, watch turnover, and let subscriptions and wholesale standing orders smooth the demand you roast against.

The formula for coffee

• Green at roasted yield + bag + valve + label + roast time at a shop rate + margin
• Specialty single-origins carry $18–24 at 12 oz; blends run $14–18 — the lot story supports the premium
• Grind and size variations: the 5 lb bag isn't five 1 lb bags — bag costs differ; cost each size
• [Lot tracking](/blog/lot-tracking-for-makers) isn't just quality — 'this month's Huila' is marketing your price can lean on

Coffee pricing mistakes to avoid

• Green-weight math — the roaster took its 18% before you sold a gram
• One bag cost across sizes — the 5 lb bag has different packaging economics
• Stale-adjacent discounting as a habit — roast planning beats markdown rescue
• Ignoring the roast-time line — the machine and the roaster's attention are costs

Green in, roasted out, margins by the ounce — Hivara for coffee roasters tracks lots, applies your real roast loss, and costs every bag and grind. Check a bag price in the free pricing calculator.